Rotherham 2 Brentford 4: Analysis – Game Changers and Key Players
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Brentford By Monorail Poster (A2) (Copy)
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I don’t get your logic.
You give high praise for Brentford, the players and Thomas Frank, yet predict a finishing position of 10th. 10yh place is just 6 points above Brentford with 18 games to the end of the season. A 10th place finish would suggest that Brentford perform only marginally better than the 7 teams currently sitting above Brentford. Are you therefore suggesting that Brentford will not maintain the high standards they exhibited at Rotherham and has been building for the past 7 -8 matches?
A team playing as well as Brentford are at present, provided they maintain form, are capable of rising through the table quickly – just consider how Hull City have risen in a 7 game run, also I think Norwich were less than spectacular during the early season.
7th position is just 10 points above Brentford, 6th 12 points and 4th/5th 13 points above.
There is no doubt that a 6th place finish is clearly possible, but to do so there must be consistency for the remaining 18 games.
To date, with the impact of the terrible run of the first nine games under Tomas Frank and last few games under Dean Smith, plus a shocking away record all season Brentford averaged 1.2 points per game. If Brentford lift the points won to 2.2 per game Brentford should scrape in to 6th position.
Your forecast that Brentford will finish in 10th position suggests that average points won per game will be 1.7, which I reckon in way below the way below the way you described the quality of the Brentford performance at Rotherham.
With the improving defence it is even conceivable that the goal difference could lead to a 5th place finish.
Every team will have a slump and plenty of those teams currently above Brentford will lose their way for a while.
We may be both wrong, but I reckon I will be less wrong than you – and with this group of players the tough task of a top 6 finish is far from over.
Hi David, to begin with, the prediction has now shifted up a space to 10th, as after the last review (Stoke City match) there was a predicted finish of 11th.
According to your finish of the playoffs, Brentford would need a points per game average of 2.2. That’s not mathematically impossible but to call that just consistency? that’s an extremely high level of performance maintained over 18 games?
As difficult as it is to not get too excited re recent form, to shift a finishing position from 11th one week up to 6th the next would be too drastic. The odds of events happening, and bookies would reflect this, shift marginally over a period until they are inevitable, not huge swings on a week to week basis.
Brentford have won away for the first time in over 280 days and have won back to back games for the first time since September? What you’re asking is that at 2.2 ppg, Brentford must replicate and display something that there’s little evidence to prove they’re able to do. Win 5-6 games in a row spanning home and away and I think we’ll see my prediction and bookies odds shift closer towards a playoff finish but you wouldn’t change that prediction until there was much more evidence.
I’d point you in the direction of the brilliant experimental 361. https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1084411153042862080?s=21
His rating system just over a week ago had Brentford at approx 2% chance of making the playoffs. The shift after two wins in a row will probably have The Bees now around 5%.
PPG, isn’t really the best way to predict future performance, it’s too simplistic. You need a more holistic approach to forecasting. Bookmakers will use a batch of xG (Expected Goals) as it is a better way to predict future performance, squad size, the transfer window, how other clubs can spend, injuries, points totals already amassed, loans market usage and money via bets. There’s a lot to pack in when predicting and rivals continuing to over perform will be in there too.
I hopefully don’t sound too negative as the last couple of performances have been fantastic and it is easy to get caught up in them. Let’s keep a keen eye on this, as a consistent run of wins in a row would certainly be intriguing.
And let’s hope you are more right than me 😉 but for now, we’ll remain a little more cautious.
But watch this space.
Congratulations to tomas frank
.plan A that worked so well at the start of the season had been spectacularly rumbled and it did look for a time that he may be to stubborn to change .However plan B (3-4-3) and the return fro injury of kamo and jeanvier is working a treat and seems like it is only
onwards and upwards for the more combative bees now.
This article, was a pleasure to read; very well written and thoughtful. Well done!