Leicester Bee Dan Suh analyses the stats and goes for a big Bees win against Notts County
What a great performance the lads put in against Sheff Utd eh? However, away from home we have been struggling to score goals, and it showed again as we created 17 chances on Tuesday night, and converted none of them, leaving the score at 0-0.
We went for it though. And that was a performance we could be proud of even if the scoreline didn’t quite work out in our favour. But it was another point gained and now we come to Notts County……at home!
Our home form, frankly, has been imperious. 14 wins from the last 15 home games is mighty impressive, with the only defeat coming against a very good Wolves performance. 33 goals have been scored in this period … 9 conceded. AND…..Tarkowski has yet to concede a goal in a game he has played in.
Even looking at our more recent form, we’ve lost 1 in 8. Other than the Rotherham and Oldham games (both away), where I thought we looked poor, the team’s performance away against Sheffield Utd and our previous home games have shown that we can turn it on when we need to and are more than capable of keeping our noses in front.
So to Saturday’s return home to Griffin Park. With a bumper crowd expected, and an incredible home form, the lads are sure to put in a decent performance. At least that’s what the stats say.
What can we expect?
Well, I confidently predict that we will see goals. Forget our away form and inability to score away from home, we can and do score at home.
So, what to expect from Notts County? Well, they’ve won 3 on the bounce, against Colchester, Crewe and Carlisle. In their last 8 games, they’ve scored 14 goals!!!!! But, they have conceded 17 goals, so the likelihood is that if they come at us, their defence will be left exposed.
And if they park the bus, then that may be their best chance of getting any points at Griffin Park, although we have tended to grind down opponents if they sit back and let us come at them.
This might work in their favour, as Notts County have scored 14 goals in their last 8 games, compared to our 8. But whereas we’ve conceded just 4 goals in the same period, County have conceded 17 goals!!!
Their forums suggest that their fans want to go for our throat, keep a winning team. But they fear the team will park the bus and get picked off. It appears as if they have tended to flood the midfield as of late, to stifle the opposition. If they do go for the throat, I reckon we can exploit their weaknesses in defence.
They might have improved their defence as of late, but I doubt that they have exactly a Wolves-esque back four. But, they do have their danger men. Ronan Murray is on fire at the moment. They also have the likes of Callum McGregor (11 goals in the league), Jamal Campbell-Ryce and Hayden Mullins, so this is a team not to take lightly.
Most teams coming to Griffin Park tend to eventually buckle if they park the bus. If they come at us, they stand a chance of unnerving us. But we have tended to perform very well in the second half, attacking the Ealing Road.
Frankly, Notts County are still trying to pick up more points to stave off the threat of relegation and they will will be told to play with no fear……they will be expected to lose. If they’ve done their homework, they will try to frustrate us.
It will be important for Brentford to fly out of the traps and go for the throat early on, as we tried to do against Sheffield United. An early goal could open the floodgates. Even if Notts County hit us on the break, we’ve seen plenty of teams crumble at Griffin Park and we have to remain patient, as a team and also as fans.
I reckon that the game will go one of two ways depending on how the first half goes. If County score first or we fail to score in the first half, I am dreading a 0-0 or 1-1 scoreline. However, if we score first, I think the game will end up 4-1 or 4-0.
Dan Leicester Bee Suh