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As Dan Suh’s recent previews to games have shown, there is quite alot to be said for the statistical analysis of games, and whilst we all know Matthew Benham and his team are about a million times more adept at analysing statistics than he is, most of Dan’s previous predictions are there or thereabouts. Will he be all right tomorrow night? We hope so.

Tuesday evening sees the mighty Brentford travel to New York (stadium), home of the Millers, and statistically speaking, this is going to be a tough game for us.  Much like Brentford, this is a team that can create chances, have only conceded one goal in March, and have not lost since January 1st, therefore they’re unbeaten in 13 games.

Much like Coventry, they don’t seem to dominate possession in games, but are certainly very good at creating chances and their defence has really tightened up.  Up until March, Rotherham were defensively less sound, and it would be argued that they were offering up plenty of chances for opposition to get shots off.  Rotherham have conceded 61% of their goals at home this season, and they have conceded goals in 83% of their home games, so perhaps the stats suggest that this game is finely balanced.

In the last eight games, Rotherham have scored 17 goals (although 6 of them were against a hapless Notts County), and conceded 6 goals.  They have averaged 48.75% possession, created 12.5 chances per game, and allowed seven chances against them.  In terms of getting shots on target, they have been getting 5.13 shots on target per game, allowing 2.75 shots on target against them.  Contrast this to Brentford, and we have scored 12 goals and conceded 6.  We have averaged 54.25% possession, created 14.5 chances per game, and allowed 10.13 against us.  We have averaged 4.88 shots on target, allowing 4.5 shots on target against us.

For me, this all depends on how we convert our chances.  If Clayton and Marcello have their shooting boots on, then I think we can nick it.  The likely result is a draw, but who knows, have an off-day and we could be face a long drive home without any points.

This is a massive game for us, and Wolves aside, we have stepped up to the mark in viritually every game out of the last 25.  These are impressive stats for any team in the world, let along League One, and Rotherham are under no illusions themselves, we are a tough team to play against.

Rotherham are a physical side, borne from a typical Steve Evans mentality.  No mugs at all, and they possess some very good players in their squad.  Frecklington tends to score goals from midfield, and they have a strong awkward striker in Agard who knows where the net is.

For me, with three away fixtures coming up, I’ll be delighted to get six points from them, and satisfied with five.  I really think that with Rotherham having drawn a few at home, and ourselves drawing a few times away from home, a share of the spoils is the most likely outcome.  The head says a 1-1 draw, but my heart says that Rotherham will have an off-day, we’ll play like Barcelona, and Brentford will come away with a 3-1 win.

Dan Suh