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Beesotted contributor Dan ‘Leicester Bee’ Suh gets his statto hat on and analyses the strengths and weaknesses of Brentford and Orient in the run up to Saturday’s big match

Those who know me, know that every season, I think we’re going up. Yes, I am one of those stupid fans who nauseatingly finds the positives in everything we do. It continually bites me on the rear end because actually, we’re big time bottlers. In all the time I’ve supported Brentford, we’ve bottled it. Yeah, ok, 1991/2 season, two Division 4 titles (I say Division 4 because I can’t remember what the divisions were actually called then….League Two? Division 3? whatever…..) but how many playoff campaigns? Wembley/Cardiff finals? Crunch games at Griffin Park? The disappointment is relentless.

One part of me says that Mark ‘the Breadman’ Warburton is still inexperienced as a manager. He’s not persuaded Logan and Farid to remain a part of the squad, just as we are coming into the trickiest part of the season. Allowing Farid to go without a replacement is just madness, isn’t it? We’re effectively down to one striker plus Grigg who we cannot afford to give game time as he doesn’t seem to fit in with the rest of the team for whatever reason.

We just don’t appear to have enough cover across the team in my opinion. For all of what was made of the criticisms of Uwe the tinkerman, an over reliance on the same players just could cause us a headache after all.

Clayton might have scored a superb goal on Saturday, but prior to that, he had looked jaded and tired…….and undroppable. So, rather than drop him, he plays every minute through his poor patch. Will he still be tired and jaded despite the goal?

And, as we talk about the squad, Judge is not the type of winger to get to the byline and stretch the opposition defence (albeit it he is a very good player regardless), and what on earth do we do if Bidwell gets injured?

The other part of me says that our squad will be fine. Trotta is some player when he wants to be. An in-form Donaldson is pretty much the first name on the team sheet. Judge has proven to be an exciting addition. The midfield is still imperious and can easily be filled in with Alan MacCormack and Jake Reeves (who does show that at times, he can be some player).

The addition to the ranks of James Tarkowski has been a revelation. Grigg is no mug and is yet to settle into the squad, but he showed encouraging signs on Saturday that he is willing to get his head down and give it a good go. Given that the Breadman is no fool in the transfer market, there’s no doubt that he will still be looking for fresher options should we need them.

We are, of course, on a run where only Wolves have beaten us in 22 games (in fact 23 after the Tranmere game). We’ve done it for a reason and last Saturday’s game against Bradford showed that we can get back to the football that got us into the position where we are now. The confidence shown against Bradford in the second half demonstrated that in actual fact, most teams in this division cannot live with us. Not even the half decent teams.

Some fans are concerned that the opposition will just want to frustrate us, but we’ve seen most of them off already. After all, we like the Breadman’s difference in attitude towards the opposition: “let them worry about us, not us about them”, and we’ve already overcome alot of teams who just want to defend against us.

Leyton Orient are a superb outfit. A very highly respected manager who has harnessed plenty of team spirit amongst his squad, so not too unlike Yeovil from last season. They have had a pretty settled team throughout their entire season and don’t really look particularly fatigued, and yes, they outplayed us at Griffin Park earlier in the season. They were good. But we were bad……then. But I do feel confident. We haven’t changed our tune from earlier in the season.

This is the best Brentford team that I have seen since the class of 1991/2. Our blip came against Wolves (and to an extent, Carlisle), but we got back on it from the 46th minute against Bradford. I am hoping that by the time that this is published, we will have dispatched with Tranmere fairly easily, and without injury concerns. That means two very good sides will battle it out on Saturday, and what a match it should be.

Brentford should enjoy the O’s coming at us and if they leave any space behind them, we have the pace and strength to exploit them. Fair enough, they have the guile to break down opposition at home. But we’re not exactly fragile either, even against very good opposition. And not many teams can live with us flooding forward.

Looking at the stats, the O’s don’t seem to absolutely dominate possession in the same way Brentford usually do, and more often than not, the opposition seem to be able to create their own chances against them.

In the last 8 games:

Brentford have scored 13 goals and conceded 7
Leyton Orient have scored 9 goals and conceded 7

Brentford have had 130 attempts on goal – 16.25 attempts on goal per game
Leyton Orient have had 85 attempts on goal – 10.63 attempts on goal per game

Brentford have had 77 attempts on goal against us – 9.63 shots against us per game
Leyton Orient have had 97 attempts on goal against them – 12.13 shots against them per game

Brentford have had 46 shots on target – 5.75 shots on target per game
Leyton Orient have had 32 shots on target – 4 shots on target per game

Brentford have had 36 shots on target against us – 4.5 shots on target against us per game
Leyton Orient have had 37 shots on target against them – 4.63 shots on target against them per game

Brentford have averaged 55% possession during this period
Leyton Orient have averaged 49.5% possession during this period

Brentford have played 5 home games and 3 away during this period
Leyton Orient have played 5 home games and 3 away during this period

Reading the comments on the O’s boards:

“The first half of the season was a feeling that i have not had following the Os for the past 40+ years, that we was going to get something from a game right up to the final whistle even when losing….Sadly thats now gone, but still believe we can do it via the play offs. COYOs”

“Effing hell, we have the opportunity of a decade but lately they play with no urgency. Yes we are still in it- just, but this stinks like the fiasco of last season where we missed out on the playoffs.”

“Agreed, but can’t help thinking that Wolves and Brentford would have won there. We are really going have to up our game against Brentford on Saturday. IMO,if we play like we did 2nd half against Colchester, we will lose.”

“We’ll have to keep fingers crossed Romain’s ok for Sat.”

“they (Brentford) only beat the sh*t teams! Lost to both Wolves and Orient, the superior teams in league one”

“Bosnian demi-god”

The general feeling is that whilst most O’s fans are supportive of their team, their confidence levels in reaching the automatics are not as high as earlier in the season. Hopeful for sure, but not massively high expectations. Certainly, they are fairly confident for Saturday, especially if Vincelot is not ruled out with an injury (as he was substituted at Vale after 20 minutes, but perhaps it was precautionary). But, the stats do not lie and are in our favour.

We will get our chances to beat Leyton Orient, we should match them for possession, and it will be a simple case of who finishes better on the day. Can we win? Sod the big match-itis. We’ve won big games before.

I’m going for a 2-1 win to Brentford.

In the meantime, respect due to Leyton Orient for what they have achieved this season on a shoestring budget and simple good management.

Dan Suh
@DanSuh_KF