BEYOND THE BREAKDOWN: Brentford Were The Unluckiest Team In The Premier League

England’s Argentina collapse: was it really the Gordon substitution?

Everyone’s blamed the Kaine-for-Gordon change, but The Allard makes the case that the damage was done by what came after — a retreat into a back five that left England with only three men in midfield against an Argentina side smelling blood. The Gowler, watching from inside the stadium in Atlanta, felt the momentum shift before a ball was even won back.

“You could really just feel that Argentina were going to score. And once they did, it felt inevitable that they’d score again.”— Jacob “The Gowler” Gowler

The Allard goes further, questioning why a visibly gassed Harry Kane was still on the pitch late on: “Kane at this point is kicking it out for throw-ins… I’ve got no idea why Kane’s on the pitch.” A cracking listen for anyone still processing that semi-final.

The stat that shows Brentford were genuinely unlucky to miss Europe

Forget the final table for a second. On expected points — a model that strips out luck and looks purely at chance quality created and conceded — Brentford finished 7th with 57 points. They actually finished 9th with 53. That’s not fans coping. That’s the model saying this squad, on merit, played like a European side.

“Brentford was seventh in the expected points table with 57 points but obviously ended ninth with 53 points… based on this, expected points suggest Brentford were a little unlucky to not finish in a European spot.”— Jacob “The Gowler” Gowler

For context, Aston Villa (12th on xPts) and Sunderland (18th) both massively over-performed their underlying numbers — which makes Brentford’s near-miss sting even more.

Is Kevin Schade a diver? The numbers — and Keith Andrews — say no

Brentford won a Premier League-high 10 penalties last season against a league average of 4.6, and Schade’s pace is a big reason why. But The Gowler and The Allard use the data to defend him from the “diver” tag that follows him around, pointing back to Keith Andrews’ own explanation on the Beesotted podcast: it’s momentum, not theatre.

“I think Keith’s point is that Kevin carries so much momentum that when he feels something, he just topples over — like an 800-metre runner might do in a race.”— Matt “The Allard” Allard

Igor Thiago actually drew more penalties than anyone (five), which the pair flag as the real story behind Brentford’s penalty count — and a number unlikely to repeat next season.

Michael Kayode is Brentford’s most underrated creator — and it’s not the long throws

Everyone outside Brentford knows Kayode for the long throw. The Gowler’s numbers tell a completely different story: Kayode led the entire Brentford squad — not just fullbacks — in xG buildup, the metric that captures every bit of passing and dribbling a player contributes to a move before the final ball. As a fullback. That’s a serious creative footprint hiding in plain sight.

“That just suggests he’s very involved in Brentford creating their chances… everything kind of runs through Kayode.”— Jacob “The Gowler” Gowler

Add in a squad-leading 38 interceptions and the second-most ball recoveries at the club, and it’s obvious why Brentford moved quickly to tie him down to a new contract.

The summer rebuild: Henderson’s Chelsea exit, new faces, and the fight to keep Jensen

With Henderson strongly linked with a Chelsea move, both hosts agree it wouldn’t be a shock — and wouldn’t be a disaster either. New arrivals Jaden Anthony (the man who tortured Brentford at Burnley) and veteran striker Callum Wilson add depth, but the real subplot is Mikkel Damsgaard’s fight to rediscover his best form and whether Mathias Jensen — a genuine fan favourite for both hosts — signs a new deal before his contract talk drags into the season.

“I don’t think Henderson was a success, but I think he did a job… he probably held us together at the point where Keith was still trying to get his feet under the table. But I generally think we improved and we outgrew him.”— Matt “The Allard” Allard